#business # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought #to-digest # Changelog ```dataview TABLE WITHOUT ID file.mtime AS "Last Modified" FROM [[#]] SORT file.mtime DESC LIMIT 3 ``` # Related # TODO > [!TODO] TODO # Investing >The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists. >~ [[Benjamin Graham]] >But this "spray and pray" approach usually produces an entire portfolio of flops, with no hits at all. This is because venture returns don't follow a normal distribution overall. Rather, they follow a power law: a small handful of companies radically outperform all others. If you focus on diversification instead of single-minded pursuit of the very few companies that can become overwhelmingly valuable, you'll miss those rare companies in the first place. >~ [[Peter Phiel - Zero to One|Peter Phiel]] I used to believe angel investors would invest small chunks in a large range of start-ups for the sake of not missing the future billion dollar one, but he seems to argue that this way of thinking makes you lazy about searching the big one? If I'd invest in start-ups, I'd look at: - the team practical skills - the team overall personalities (my own representation learning model) - the team cohesion, would they marry each other? Did they live together for a live? Survived? - market / tech / what they work on / timing # External links