Created at 2023-01-22
# [Anonymous feedback](https://www.admonymous.co/louis030195)
# [[Epistemic status]]
#shower-thought
Last modified date: 2023-01-22
Commit: 0
# Related
- [[Probability theory]]
- [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/Black Swan]]
- [[Philosophy/Rationality/Low expectations]]
- [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/The Bell curve is a dangerous heuristic]]
# TODO
> [!TODO] TODO
# Cromwell rule
It suggests that if a decision is important and difficult to make, we should be conservative and prefer the least risky option. In other words, if we are unsure of the outcome of a situation, it’s better to choose the option that has the least potential downside. The Cromwell Rule is a useful tool for making rational decisions, and it is an important part of effective decision-making.
$God does not exist$
$2+2=4$
Rather have high confidence but leave room for possibilities, [[Epistemic arrogance|certainty is dangerous]].