Created at 2023-01-22 # [Anonymous feedback](https://www.admonymous.co/louis030195) # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought Last modified date: 2023-01-22 Commit: 0 # Related - [[Probability theory]] - [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/Black Swan]] - [[Philosophy/Rationality/Low expectations]] - [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/The Bell curve is a dangerous heuristic]] # TODO > [!TODO] TODO # Cromwell rule It suggests that if a decision is important and difficult to make, we should be conservative and prefer the least risky option. In other words, if we are unsure of the outcome of a situation, it’s better to choose the option that has the least potential downside. The Cromwell Rule is a useful tool for making rational decisions, and it is an important part of effective decision-making. $God does not exist$ $2+2=4$ Rather have high confidence but leave room for possibilities, [[Epistemic arrogance|certainty is dangerous]].