#probability #statistics #mathematic # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Related - [[Short-sightedness]] - [[Mediocristan]] - [[Sabine Hossenfelder - Lost in Math - How Beauty Leads Physics Astray]] - [[Gaps in your map]] # Extremistan >If you are dealing with quantities from Extremistan, you will have trouble figuring out the average from any sample since it can depend so much on one single observation. >~ [[Nassim Taleb|Taleb]] ![Extreme Huge Chonker Cat, oh lawd he coming, professional photo, full body view, XF IQ4, 150MP, 50mm, F1.4, ISO 200, 1/160s, natural light](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/023ae38f-1bc7-4035-8daf-03d272fe2b5b) Populated by fat tails ![wooden cat design, character sheet, Moebius, Greg Rutkowski, Zabrocki, Karlkka, Jayison Devadas, Phuoc Quan, trending on Artstation, 8K, ultra wide angle, zenith view, pincushion lens effect.](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/0a298ce6-c8b3-4692-8568-2c230f7a101c) Do not use the bell curve ![[efbcc442-3518-4d39-8cde-8daa51feabfa-0-3255381512.png]] Events of high impact ![[d928c56e-6a04-4554-bc51-9dea6ce4d137-0-3606059088.png]] Second law of thermodynamics, our world is increasingly and nonlinearly more complex, i.e. we will forever live in [[Extremistan]] except if the theory of the [[Big crunch]] is true) ![Installation art. Using data from a NASA exoplanet space telescope, scientists discovered a Jupiter-like world 379 light-years from Earth, orbiting a star similar to our Sun. color blindness by Randolph Stanley Hewton, by Zack Snyder washed-out](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/06e715d2-5425-49f8-a7a9-cc4508fb1e1f) ![a diagram of a vape in da vinci style](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/024b3b18-cd69-4fbd-8b1b-2ec6c2692e80) Therefore, it is rational to be extremely skeptical about your current state of knowledge - i;e; you need [[Philosophy/Rationality/Models/Exploration vs exploitation|exploration]] ![mehmet paterns, hr giger, mc escher style djinns ](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/04ca9952-3237-48f5-affe-3a69ba71e189) Financial examples: - Software - Art (cinema, books...) - Currency ## [[Existential risk]] ![an artificial intelligence gaining sentience, abstract ](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/02b48843-e349-466f-a53b-00c2b7b8a6db) Existential risks are therefore becoming nonlinearly more probable but humanity does not nonlinearly increase its safety ![in a field, two scientists in lab coats encounter a monster shaped like the DNA double helix, stormy weather, by Rob Gonsalves, faster, more intense](https://lexica-serve-encoded-images.sharif.workers.dev/md/04550fac-0a58-4a40-915b-6676a08f7348)