#probability #statistics #mathematic # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Related - [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/The Bell curve is a dangerous heuristic]] - [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/Black Swan]] - [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/Cromwell rule]] - [[Mathematic/Causality/Probability/Ergodicity]] # Mediocristan >I can state the supreme law of Mediocristan as follows: When your sample is large, no single instance will significantly change the aggregate or the total. The largest observation will remain impressive, but eventually insignificant, to the sum. >~ [[Nassim Taleb]] Mediocristan is characterized by the use of the bell curve, low-impact events, and predictability. Examples of financial activities that take place in Mediocristan include running a restaurant, prostitution, and baking. In contrast, our world is increasingly complex, making it impossible to ever exist in [[Extremistan]], unless the [[Big crunch]] theory is true.