# Thinking in Bets: Annie Duke Framework Cheatsheet ## 🎯 Core Concept **Life = Poker, Not Chess** - Hidden information + uncertain outcomes - Skill matters more than luck over time - Judge process, not results --- ## 🧠 The 4 Mental Traps | Trap | What It Is | Fix | |------|------------|-----| | **Resulting** | Judging decisions by outcomes | Evaluate process quality instead | | **Motivated Reasoning** | Twisting facts to fit beliefs | Actively seek disconfirming evidence | | **Hindsight Bias** | "I knew it all along" | Document predictions beforehand | | **Temporal Discounting** | Overvaluing immediate rewards | Consider future self's perspective | --- ## 🛠️ Decision Framework (BETS) ### **B**elief State - What do I believe? - How confident am I? (0-100%) ### **E**vidence Check - What evidence supports this? - What would make me wrong? ### **T**ime Horizon - Short-term vs long-term trade-offs - What does future me want? ### **S**takes Assessment - Expected value calculation - "Would I bet money on this?" --- ## ⚡ Quick Tools ### The Confidence Calibration Scale - 50% = Coin flip - 70% = Probably right - 90% = Very confident - 99% = Almost certain (rare!) ### The "Wanna Bet?" Test Before strong claims: "Would I bet $100 on this being true?" ### Pre-Mortem Questions - What could go wrong? - What assumptions might be false? - What would I do differently if I had to decide again? --- ## 📊 For Louis ### Product Decisions - **Don't**: "Customer loved demo = great product" - **Do**: "Demo went well (70% confidence this indicates product-market fit)" ### Hiring Decisions - **Don't**: "Great interview = great hire" - **Do**: "Strong signals (80% confidence), but track actual performance" ### Fundraising Strategy - **Don't**: "VCs will obviously want this" - **Do**: "Based on X evidence, Y% chance of Series A success" --- ## 🎲 Daily Practices ### Morning - **Belief Inventory**: What am I most confident about today? - **Uncertainty Acknowledgment**: What don't I know? ### Evening - **Decision Review**: What did I decide based on process vs outcome? - **Calibration Check**: Were my confidence levels accurate? ### Weekly - **Truth-Seeking Audit**: Who challenged my thinking this week? - **Update Beliefs**: What evidence changed my mind? --- ## 🚨 Red Flags Watch for these phrases: - "I knew it would work" - "It's obvious that..." - "Everyone knows..." - "This always works" - "I'm 100% sure" **Replace with:** - "Based on X, I believe Y with Z% confidence" --- ## 💡 Power Moves ### Create Truth-Seeking Groups - Reward accuracy over agreement - Make it safe to say "I don't know" - Challenge each other's assumptions ### Decision Journals - Record: Decision, confidence level, reasoning - Review: Actual outcomes vs predictions - Learn: Calibrate future confidence ### Scenario Planning - Best case (20% probability) - Most likely (60% probability) - Worst case (20% probability) - Plan for all three --- ## 🎯 The Meta-Game **Goal**: Not to be right, but to **get less wrong faster** **Mindset Shift**: - From: "Am I right?" - To: "How can I improve my decision-making process?" **Competitive Advantage**: While others are paralyzed by uncertainty, you're making calibrated bets and learning faster. --- *"The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality plus luck."* - Annie Duke #personal-growth #decision-making-framework #cognitive-biases #mental-model [[Mental model cheatsheet]]