Created at 070923 # [Anonymous feedback](https://www.admonymous.co/louis030195) # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought Last modified date: 070923 Commit: 0 # Related - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkAum45ubWc # Contrarian Here are a few key points about being contrarian: - Contrarian means going against the prevailing opinion or popular consensus on something. A contrarian idea is one that bucks conventional wisdom. - It's easy to be different just for the sake of being different. True contrarian thinking requires having a well-reasoned, intelligent critique of the mainstream view. - Contrarian perspectives are often valuable because they challenge assumptions and spur people to think differently. But being contrarian doesn't automatically mean being right. - The most effective contrarian ideas are ones where you know or see something that supporters of the mainstream view don't know or see. You need an edge in information or insight. - Contrarian opportunities tend to involve risk, since they go against the crowd. So contrarian entrepreneurs need to find intelligent ways to test and validate their ideas to see if the risk pays off. - Something can be contrarian relative to one audience (e.g. consumers), while obvious to another (e.g. people already working in that industry). Understand the perspective. - Combining ideas in a novel way can produce contrarian opportunities, but it helps if there is a clear logic behind the combination. In summary, effective contrarian thinking requires having special knowledge or foresight combined with a compelling logic and evidence for why the mainstream viewpoint is wrong or incomplete. It's not enough just to be different - you need an intelligent critique. ## examples Here are a few examples of contrarian ideas and perspectives that went against the grain: - Tesla building high-end electric cars when most automakers were focused on gasoline vehicles. Elon Musk saw the potential for electric vehicles earlier than incumbent car companies. - Netflix pivoting from mailing DVD rentals to streaming vide o on demand in 2007, before most people had fast enough home internet service. They saw where broadband speeds were heading. - Apple removing disk drives from laptops in the late 1990s, when many saw optical storage as essential. Apple saw the potential of internet downloads. - Google building a major advertising business around search when many doubted searches could be monetized effectively. Google saw extra knowledge about users' intent. - Airbnb pushing shared home rentals long before it was mainstream. They recognized an opportunity to unlock new supply. - Bitcoin proposing digital currency based on blockchain when industries were focused on traditional payment rails. Bitcoin took a contrarian technical approach. The key is each contrarian idea was underpinned by unique insight into user needs, market trends, or technical possibilities. It's not enough just to be different - you need a compelling rationale.