### Risk Appetite & Nonlinear Bets — 2025 Mode - **Use**: surface true risk style and design asymmetric, testable bets with bounded downside. - **Timeboxes**: 90s jot, 5–7m share, 3m follow‑ups; 3 rounds. - **Consent**: red/yellow/green; opt‑out anytime; confidentiality assumed. ### calibration - What’s your risk story (biggest win, biggest scar)? - In the last 12 months, where did you play not to lose? - If reputation costs were zero for 30 days, what would you attempt? ### 1) risk fingerprint (rate 1–5) - Capital, Reputation, Time, Health, Relationships: tolerance, recovery speed, red lines. - What ruin risks exist? How will you avoid them? ### 2) asymmetric finder (10→3→1) - Brain-dump 10 candidate bets. Filter for: bounded downside, uncapped upside, path to proof in ≤2 weeks, fits unique edge. - For top 3: write payoff table (win/base/lose), rough EV, cheap test. - Pick 1 to run now. ### 3) your edge (honest inventory) - Where do you have non‑replicable advantage? Info access, speed, distribution, brand trust, technical wedge, network, cost structure, persistence. - Which bet compounds your edge even if it ‘fails’ (creates assets: code, content, customers, contacts)? ### 4) sizing & portfolio - Barbell: 80–90% durable/low‑variance, 10–20% high‑variance. - Kelly‑lite: size at 0.25× estimated edge; cap per‑bet downside at X days + $Y. - Weekly risk budget: time ___h, cash ___, social ___. ### 5) kill criteria & stop‑loss - Define explicit kill triggers (time, metric, cash burn). If 2 consecutive misses → stop or pivot. - Pre‑commit a post‑mortem template. ### 6) premortem & red team - “It’s 90 days later and the bet failed.” List 5 causes. How to cheaply de‑risk each in 1–3 days? - Who can red‑team this? What evidence would change your mind? ### 7) optionality engineering - Convert bet outputs into reusable options: library/API, distribution channel, partner canal, public artifact, hiring magnet. - What makes this bet anti‑fragile to volatility? ### 8) 30‑day experiments (pick one) - Two micro‑bets per week with capped downside; log EV assumptions vs outcomes. - One “no‑reputation” sandbox: ship publicly under alt and measure. - One “speed round”: idea→test→decision in 72h. ### 9) prompts (choose 3) - What is your most asymmetric bet available this quarter? - Which fear, trained for 30 days, would unlock the largest power‑up? - What constraint do you refuse on principle? - What single point of failure threatens ruin, and how do you remove it this week? - What asset can you build once to reduce risk across all future bets? ### 10) commitments - Place bet: ____ by ____; test, metrics, kill criteria. - Do less (risk leakage): ____ - Do more (edge compounding): ____ tags: #human-prompt #prompts #social-game #bigtalk