#rationality Created at 2023-01-15 # [Anonymous feedback](https://www.admonymous.co/louis030195) # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought Last modified date: 2023-01-15 Commit: 0 # Related - [[Mathematic/Causality/Unpredictability]] - [[Philosophy/Rationality/Models/Planning fallacy]] - [[Philosophy/Epistemology/You cannot always predict the future from the past]] # TODO > [!TODO] TODO # Forecasting Metaculus forecasting is an innovative platform that provides predictions on a wide range of topics, from politics to technology. It utilizes a combination of machine learning, user-generated predictions and data science to generate highly accurate predictions. The platform uses a combination of game theory and collective intelligence to generate forecasts that have proven to be highly accurate. Users can submit their own predictions and interact with other users in the community to discuss their predictions and gain valuable insights. Metaculus is a great tool for individuals and organizations looking to gain insights into complex topics, allowing them to make more informed decisions. https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/ ## Pascalian prior Pascal's prior is a concept in Bayesian statistics that was established by the mathematician [[Blaise Pascal]] in 1654. It is the idea that when making decisions, the probability of an outcome should be based on past experience. This idea has been adopted by many decision makers, as it allows them to make decisions based on past experience and knowledge, rather than relying solely on intuition or guesswork. For example, a doctor may use Pascal's prior when making a diagnosis. Using the prior, the doctor can make a diagnosis based on previous cases or studies of similar illnesses, rather than relying solely on a patient's symptoms. This helps the doctor to make more informed decisions and to better understand the likelihood of a certain outcome.