--- aliases: [Availability heuristic] --- #rationality #bias # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Availability bias #to-digest >The availability heuristic is judging the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which examples of the event come to mind. >~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] We give higher importance to what we are exposed. i.e. Bob is math researcher, he will think math is the most important thing. John is doctor he will think medicine is VERY important. It is not necessarily objective thinking. I think the key things to consider here are: - **Non-objective beliefs under the variation of the distribution of [[Information|information]]** - **Incorrect predictions under the magnitude of events** (you've been in a motorbike accident, you misjudge the risks of motorbike accident) I will adress eventual solutions or questions you can ask yourself to challenge this bias. ## Non-objective beliefs under the variation of the distribution of [[Information|information]] - What kind of information are you mostly consuming? ([[Space-time]], i.e. what, how much, how frequently) Any recent changes? - What kind of information related to your decision do you lack? What [[Philosophy/Epistemology/Knowledge|knowledge]] do you eventually lack? ## Incorrect predictions under the magnitude of events #to-digest ![[Philosophy/Rationality/Models/Black Swan|Black Swan]] ## [[The news]] make you more prone to availability bias [[The news]] skew the distribution of reality towards what’s bringing the most attention, I.e. murders > suicide for the journalist. >Selective reporting is one major source of availability biases. In the ancestral environment, much of what you knew, you experienced yourself; or you heard it directly from a fellow tribe-member who had seen it. There was usually at most one layer of selective reporting between you, and the event itself. With today's Internet, you may see reports that have passed through the hands of six bloggers on the way to you-six successive filters. Compared to our ancestors, we live in a larger world, in which far more happens, and far less of it reaches us-a much stronger selection effect, which can create much larger availability biases. >~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] # Links - https://fs.blog/availability-bias-cognitive-distortion/ - https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/availability-heuristic