#mental-model #epistemology #rationality # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Black Swan ![[DALL·E 2022-06-19 20.09.19 - Man watching white swans, while a black swan is hidden beneath a tree, digital art.png]] "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" - [[Nassim Taleb]] A **Black Swan** is a rare, unpredictable event, i.e. 2020 Covid-19, 9-11 ... It's an useful model to be aware of the hidden risk of ruin that can surpass the high probability events on the long term return. [[Nassim Taleb]] example is great, the Russian roulette, you have 5 chance on 6 to win 100 m $ and 1 chance on 6 to end it all. The problem is that we often don't see the Black Swan. ![[Russian Roulette.jpg]] >No matter how many instances of white swans we may have observed, this does not justify the conclusion that all swans are white. >~ [[Karl Popper]] ![[DALL·E 2022-06-19 20.10.53 - Man watching white swans, while a black swan is hidden beneath a tree, digital art.png]] >The Alar tale illustrates a basic limitation in the ability of our mind to deal with small risks: we either ignore them altogether or give them far too much weight—nothing in between. ~ [[Kahnemann]]