#bias #rationality #mental-model # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Conjunction fallacy #to-digest >The conjunction fallacy is when humans rate the probability P(A, B) higher than the probability P(B), even though it is a theorem that P(A, B) < P(B). ~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] I.e. believing that there is a higher chance that a meteor hit planet earth while Bob is eating an apple, rather than just a meteor hitting planet earth. It is easy to fall for these mistakes in an [[Information|information]] age, where many events are more or less related. >Adding detail can make a scenario SOUND MORE PLAUSIBLE, even though the event necessarily BECOMES LESS PROBABLE. ~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] # External links