#bias #rationality #mental-model
# [[Epistemic status]]
#shower-thought
# Conjunction fallacy
#to-digest
>The conjunction fallacy is when humans rate the probability P(A, B) higher
than the probability P(B), even though it is a theorem that P(A, B) < P(B).
~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
I.e. believing that there is a higher chance that a meteor hit planet earth while Bob is eating an apple, rather than just a meteor hitting planet earth.
It is easy to fall for these mistakes in an [[Information|information]] age, where many events are more or less related.
>Adding detail can make a scenario SOUND MORE PLAUSIBLE,
even though the event necessarily BECOMES LESS PROBABLE.
~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
# External links