#mental-model #bias #rationality # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Hindsight Bias false confidence on predicting events "i knew it" >Past events will always look less random than they were (it is called the hindsight bias). >~ [[Nassim Taleb|Taleb]] >Speaking of "hindsight bias" is just the nontechnical way of saying that humans do not rigorously separate forward and backward messages, allowing forward messages to be contaminated by backward ones. ~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] ## Conservation of expected evidence The cure to hindsight bias is to ensure you keep the same predictions after the event occurring. >**Conservation of Expected Evidence**: The expectation of the posterior probability, after viewing the evidence, must equal the prior probability. $P(H) = P(H, E) + P(H, E)$ $P(H) = P(HE × P(E) + PH-E) × P(-E)$ Therefore, for every expectation of evidence, there is an equal and opposite expectation of counterevidence. ~ [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]