#mental-model #knowledge #information #rationality # [[Epistemic status]] #schroedinger-uncertain # Lindy Effect **IGNORE THE CURVE, IT DOES NOT MATTER** >For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy. For the nonperishable, every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy. >~ [[Nassim Taleb|Taleb]] The lindy effect is a concept that emerged from the observations of the lifespan of cultural artifacts. It states that the longer a cultural artifact, such as a book or an idea, has existed, the longer it can be expected to continue to exist. Simply put, the longer something has been around, the longer it tends to stay around. This phenomenon is based on the idea that the longer something has persisted, the more likely it is that it will continue to be relevant and valuable, and that it has already undergone a process of natural selection. The lindy effect has since been applied to various aspects of life, from technologies to businesses, and continues to be a useful tool for understanding the longevity of cultural artifacts. The longer a book has been in print, the longer it can be expected to stay in print. The longer a technology has been in use, the longer it can be expected to remain in use. # Perishable Time reduces life expectancy. ![[Pasted image 20210523161952.png]] # Nonperishable Time increases life expectancy. ![[Pasted image 20210523162018.png]] examples: - Silverware thousand years old, still used today - Fire, we cook with and many more usage - Tablets, we used it to write, now everything (iPad) - The chair - ... # In Health ![[Louis/archived/Health/Lindy Effect]] # **Lindy Effect** is [[Compound Knowledge]] >The ancients tell us what is best; but we must learn of the moderns what is fittest. ~ [[Benjamin Franklin]] [[Cicero]] cannot teach you [[Artificial intelligence]]. The ancients teach [[Compound Knowledge]], foundations, the moderns teach state-of-the-art [[Philosophy/Epistemology/Knowledge|knowledge]]. # Increase your [[Skepticism|skepticism]] for what is modern Example: [[Kahnemann]] admitted his book & research had some errors a while after the publications, time filter quality. # Quotes *Lindy is a deli in New York, now a tourist trap, that proudly claims to be famous for its cheesecake, but in fact has been known for fifty or so years by physicists and mathematicians thanks to the heuristic that developed there. Actors who hung out there gossiping about other actors discovered that Broadway shows that lasted for, say, one hundred days, had a future life expectancy of a hundred more. For those that lasted two hundred days, two hundred more. The heuristic became known as the Lindy effect.* [[Nassim Taleb]] *The idea of the Lindy effect is itself Lindy-proof. The pre-Socratic thinker Periander of Corinth wrote, more than twenty-five hundred years ago: Use laws that are old but food that is fresh. Likewise, Alfonso X of Spain, nicknamed El Sabio, “the wise,” had as a maxim: Burn old logs. Drink old wine. Read old books. Keep old friends.* ~ [[Nassim Taleb]] # Anecdotes >A Copy of them happening to fall into the Hands of the Count de Buffon, a Philosopher deservedly of great Reputation in France, and indeed all over Europe he prevail'd with M. Dalibard to translate them into French; and they were printed at Paris. ~ [[Benjamin Franklin]] So, my thought is that, since I've never heard of **Count de Buffon** is that he did not survive the test of time, pointing out again, that no matter how popular is some author now, only the test of time can prove him worthwhile to read. Or maybe it's just my [[Ignorance|ignorance]] and **Count de Buffon** is actually well known? ![[Screenshot 2021-08-17 at 08.02.05.png]]