#bias #mental-model #rationality # [[Epistemic status]] #shower-thought # Related - [[Readwise/Articles/Zachary Robertson - The Planning Problem - LessWrong]] - [[Business/Entrepreneurship/Product design and one sample predictions]] - [[Philosophy/Rationality/Typical mind fallacy]] - [[Philosophy/Epistemology/You cannot always predict the future from the past]] # Planning fallacy The Planning Fallacy is the tendency of people to underestimate the amount of time and effort necessary to complete a task. This is due to the fact that people tend to focus on their own optimistic expectations of how long a task will take, rather than consider the potential external factors and difficulties that could slow the process down. This can lead to people making overly optimistic predictions about how long a task will take, and can lead to projects taking significantly longer to complete than originally anticipated. In order to avoid this fallacy, it is important to consider the potential external factors and difficulties that could hinder the completion of a task, and be prepared to adjust plans accordingly. For example, Sydney opera house was supposed to be completed in 1963, but due to the underestimation of the amount of work needed, it was not completed until 1973. This is an example of the planning fallacy and shows how important it is to consider the potential external factors and difficulties that could hinder the completion of a task. I guess new kind of work time predictions are quite non intuitive Evolution didn’t teach us how much time it takes to sit and hit on a white tablet (with an grey apple drawn on the back) for hours