The Lindy Effect - Toby Ord  ## Metadata - Author: **Toby Ord** - Full Title: The Lindy Effect - Category: #articles - URL: https://readwise-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/media/wisereads/articles/the-lindy-effect/The_Lindy_Effect_-_Toby_Ord.pdf ## Highlights - While the Lindy effect is often thought to require a declining hazard rate, I show that it arises very naturally even in cases with constant (or increasing) hazard rates — so long as there is a probability distribution over the size of that rate. One implication is that even things which are becoming less robust over time can display the Lindy effect. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01hadf3794jgespyvmhkjbw8q2)) - The Lindy effect is a statistical regularity where for many kinds of entity: the longer they have been around so far, the longer they are likely to last. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01hadf4ej6vdh35d5x3z61nqs3)) - ‘If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life! ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01hadf8c2a6mqabvzk3sc41vtn)) - For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy. For the nonperishable, every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01hadfb3343cw9sxx6zjhvj3v6)) - something whose lifespan is exponentially distributed (such as a radioactive particle) does not display the Lindy effect. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01hadfg4qkjce57qaxnczw80vn))