[NEW] Why Technology Still Matters With Marc Andreessen - a16z Podcast  ## Metadata - Author: **a16z Podcast** - Full Title: [NEW] Why Technology Still Matters With Marc Andreessen - Category: #podcasts - URL: https://share.snipd.com/episode/42db57fc-f782-4290-9433-a74e7d9dd032 ## Highlights - The Blowback Summary: Bicycle face was the idea that your face is going to freeze into that conservative position. The radio, trains, teddy bears, jazz music all had this blowback. In almost every case, it's basically a fear, a statement, an assertion,. A realization that the introduction of the new technology is going to change the society. Transcript: Speaker 1 And so you're going to have like your face is going to contort, you know, because of the exertion and you're going to be like, you know, peddling along like this. And bicycle face was the idea that your face is going to freeze into that conservative position. And then, you know, then you would never be able to get married, right? Now, fortunately it turned out bicycle face was not actually a real thing. It turned out civilization survived the introduction of the bicycle. But basically like there's just this, there's this constant blowback, right? And then basically what you find, and we'll probably talk about this in some length, but basically what you find is the blowback is nominally a response to the dangers of the technology. What the blowback actually is in almost every case, so the blowback actually is, it's basically a fear, a statement, an assertion, a realization that the introduction of the new technology is going to change the society, right? And then in particular status and power within the society, right? Who's in charge? Who's in power? Who makes decisions? Who asks status? Who gets money? Right? All of a sudden the ordering of societies that for grabs. And that's why you get this just like, you know, spectacular freak out when these things show up. Speaker 2 Yeah, I'm glad you brought up Pessimist Archive because if people are curious, we'll bring it up on the screen. But basically anything that you can think of as a prior technology, or maybe even things that you take for granted as not technologies, just things embedded in our lives, had this blowback. You mentioned the bicycle, but it's also the radio, trains, teddy bears, jazz music. ([Time 0:11:33](https://share.snipd.com/snip/fb2b9e05-5c36-412c-a735-b4665c717d38)) - How Does Technology Impact Society? Summary: Yeah, so there's this incredible book. It's very short, very good. It's actually written 50 years ago by a professor at MIT at the time. And it's the name Elting Morrison. And what's great about this book is it was written before the internet, even before personal computers. And so it's got this kind of timeless kind of quality to it. And it's the title of the book is called Men, Machines, and Modern Times. It's this topic. It's basically okay. What exactly is the process by which you do technology, and how does society react? Basically, how does the powers that be or the status quo of society react? And Morrison tells this amazing story. Transcript: Speaker 1 Yeah, so there's this incredible book. It's very short, very good. It's actually written 50 years ago by a professor at MIT at the time. And it's the name Elting Morrison. And what's great about this book is it was written before the internet, even before personal computers. And so it's got this kind of timeless kind of quality to it. And it's the title of the book is called Men, Machines, and Modern Times. It's this topic. It's basically okay. What exactly is the process by which you do technology, and how does society react? Basically, how does the powers that be or the status quo of society react? And Morrison tells this amazing story. ([Time 0:13:29](https://share.snipd.com/snip/fb13313c-7754-4e6d-be60-8b05d6c8bc39)) - Cryptocurrency Blockchain Web Three Is Following This Exact Trajectories Summary: "I've now seen this pattern, you know, out of 50 times in the last 30 years and it keeps playing out the same way. Nobody learns anything," he says. "This is literally what happens with every new technology." Transcript: Speaker 1 And so Morrison basically derives, he goes through this example, and he derives basically this three part process that he says applies to any new technology. Basically, as it is as it is greeted and fought by the status quo by the powers it be. And he says basically, it's a three step process. The step one is just completely ignore it. Like, so just pretend it doesn't exist, refuse to acknowledge it, don't talk about it, don't even engage in conversations like we're just not going to do this. At some point though, at some point, these things become too obvious and they have to engage. She said step two is rational counter argument, right? So, and rational counter argument is this can't possibly work because, you know, it's going to be too expensive. It's not going to be fast enough. It's not going to scale. People don't know how to use it. All the different kind of rational arguments that you can come up with to oppose something. And then ultimately, when those don't work anymore, because people are still watching this and being like, okay, this still seems like a good idea. Then he says stage three is when the name calling begins. And so stage three is basically just like a full out power status political fight where all of a sudden basically it's like, okay, these are these people who are bringing this technology, they're bad people, they have bad morals, they have bad intent, they're going to ruin everything. And if you think about it, it's so funny because it's like basically the internet followed this exact trajectory. Like, you know, crypto cryptocurrency blockchain web three is following this exact same trajectory social networking follows this exact same trajectory. Like, I've now seen this pattern, you know, out of 50 times in the last 30 years and it keeps playing out the same way. Nobody learns anything. Right. And it is this is literally what happens with every new technology and I become convinced that basically how this unfolds. ([Time 0:18:01](https://share.snipd.com/snip/e82df260-38d8-4c7d-b9ee-4e7b7ea34f99)) - The Biology of Social Networking Summary: The law requires people to disassemble their cars if they see a horse coming at them. The idea is that the car might scare the horses, who then freak out and get hurt. It's an example of how modern technology laws could be outdated in 100 years' time when social networking will have become commonplace. Transcript: Speaker 1 You know that this guy can walk. And this guy is like waving the red flags. Why is this guy waving the red flags to warn everybody that a car is coming. Right. Why, why was the explanation that he needs to warn people that car? Why is it that he wants to warn people that car is coming well because the car might scare the horses. Right. So like, you know, if the car comes along it's making noise it scares the horses, you know, the horses that are most about on the road at that time, they freak out or, you know, by standards freak out, people get hurt. Like this would be really bad. And so, so literally it's like, okay, that that was not the car got rolled out the most advanced form of this law that I've been able to find. But I just want to step further. So basically, if you're driving along and you actually see a horse coming at you, you see somebody on a horse coming at you in the direction. You have to pull over to the side of the road. You have to disassemble the car. You have to take it apart. Right. You and your mechanic would take the car apart and you have to hide the parts of the car so that the horse can't see them. Right. Because the horse might get scared. Right. It's scared by the appearance of the car. And then when the horse goes by, you can then reassemble your car. Right. And of course, you look back today and you're just like, okay, this is like incredibly comical. Like, how could they ever do this? And then of course, you exactly your point like social networking, you think of exactly the technology. So then you're like, oh, yeah, you know, they're putting in place laws that, you know, 100 years from now, you know, the laws that are being put in place now on a lot of modern technology topics are going to look just to silly thread flag laws but since nobody ever learns anything, you know, history will get through over. ([Time 0:23:30](https://share.snipd.com/snip/cb50a51a-897b-4fe7-b1fc-a9f75b75d0f6)) - A16Z - Innovation and Technology Summary: I wonder how perhaps we might be able to do that within the framing of how people view innovation and technology. Douglas Adams, the science section of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. He said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right? It's going to bring doom to civilization. Transcript: Speaker 2 And like we talked about, that comes with time. But the reason I asked you how you made that shift or almost in some way changed your opinion as you got new data is because I wonder how perhaps we might be able to do that within the framing of how people view innovation and technology. Kind of returning to what we talked about at the very beginning of this conversation, it does feel like there is this perception of technology. Of course, not everyone holds it that, you know, we're in a bad place or, again, the world's getting worse or insert negative thing about our current state of affairs. And I think it's really inspiring at least at A16Z to see that people do hold this very optimistic view. And I wonder what you think maybe we can do as a collective, as a society, to maybe orient more around this more positive view of technology, because from my understanding and I'd actually love for you to go into this history, it doesn't sound like this was always the case that technology, I mean, specific technologies were viewed quite negatively, but a sense around innovation, I think, has been different in the past. Is that right? Speaker 1 Yeah, so that's a good point. So technology has always kind of gone through the cycle and I would go so far as to say like the technology adoption cycle, resistance cycle, like I'm not sure it's actually going to change Douglas Adams, the science section of the Douglas Adams who wrote the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. Oh, yes. Both very funny, very serious, right? So he said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. Any technology that gets invented between the time when you're like 15 and 35 is like new and exciting and cool and cutting edge and like maybe you can make a career in it. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right, and it's going to bring doom to civilization. ([Time 0:54:04](https://share.snipd.com/snip/fb2f7ea2-42dc-475e-b426-b3fbd8213792)) - The Technology Adoption Cycle Summary: Technology has always kind of gone through the cycle and I would go so far as to say like the technology adoption cycle, resistance cycle. Douglas Adams, the science section of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. He said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right? Transcript: Speaker 1 Yeah, so that's a good point. So technology has always kind of gone through the cycle and I would go so far as to say like the technology adoption cycle, resistance cycle, like I'm not sure it's actually going to change Douglas Adams, the science section of the Douglas Adams who wrote the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. Oh, yes. Both very funny, very serious, right? So he said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. Any technology that gets invented between the time when you're like 15 and 35 is like new and exciting and cool and cutting edge and like maybe you can make a career in it. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right, and it's going to bring doom to civilization. Another way to kind of putting the sim cycle. So, so like the most kind of, I don't know, the most negative thing you could say or something would be like there's just this like permanent generational psychological thing, this cycle where another famous quote, I think it's the great business. Max Planck once said science advances one funeral at a time, meaning that like, you know, in science, you need like the old senior scientists who have like one paradigm to like quite literally die off so that the young scientists of the new paradigm can actually like take over. You know, that sort of pessimistic view would be like this is just so deeply baked into the mentality of how people operate psychologically that it's just like the permanent state of affairs. ([Time 0:55:05](https://share.snipd.com/snip/3810ae2f-064b-4dc9-b507-de8ae2da35db)) - What Do You Wish Society Valued More? Summary: As more people get access to this information, I think we're going to be really surprised by what comes out of that. One thing I really want to ask you about is how society values certain things. How do you view that changing today? What do you think society is valuing today? And perhaps if you're willing to share, what do you wish society valued more? Transcript: Speaker 2 Yeah, I think even another aspect of that is more people who are coming online, you are having them get access to remote work. And, you know, another second order effect of that is that remote tends to be more asynchronous. So certain people don't always benefit from the nine to five as an example. And, you know, I saw this infographic today of just like the schedules of all these luminaries from back in the day who had created wonderful things. And they were all over the place. So let's just again, one example of as more people get access to this information, as more people have access to different types of schedules or different types of companies or people facilitated through the internet, I think we're going to be really surprised by what comes out of that. That's right. One thing I really want to ask you about is how society values certain things. And I've heard you talk about this to an extent before, but society will fluctuate throughout time and different people within that society will value different things. But society as a whole does seem to find virtue in in certain things at certain times. So for example, you mentioned before, in history, maybe entrepreneurs were valued more. So as people built things, society rewarded that type of achievement. How do you view that changing today? What do you think society is valuing today? And perhaps if you're willing to share, what do you wish society valued more? ([Time 1:07:27](https://share.snipd.com/snip/f3716f27-e26f-4c9a-8dc2-0f7b1bed6e6a)) - Throwbacks to the Old Model Summary: In venture capital, what we do is we're basically the throwback. The startups that we fund are being funded, we fund startups that get that old model. We're trying to find those sort of modern bourgeois capitalists who are kind of throwbacks to the old model. Why are we doing that? Because that's the only way to do something new, right? That was the model for doing new things. Transcript: Speaker 1 Henry Ford today could not run for a motor company like it's too big and complicated, you need a different skill set. But he said, look, it is a very different, it is a very big social cultural change. And it's a change basically from valuing a sort of individual aggression, individual merit, individual achievement, individual accomplishment, individual force of will, right, to a much more collective, right, way of operating, right, groups, groups operating in sort of consensus collaborative form, you know, people having to come to agreement on things, committees, bureaucracy, right. And he basically said, it's sort of, you know, stage one, stage two, the way I view kind of what we do, like in venture capital, what we do is we basically are, we're basically the throwback. So the startups that we fund are being funded, we fund startups that get that old model, like we're trying to find the next generation of Henry Ford's, right, and Andrew Carnegie's and so forth. And you know, Lee was Stanford, you know, the railroad guy who, you know, ultimately funded Stanford University was a rubber bear in the 1880s. We're trying to basically go find those sort of modern bourgeois capitalists who are kind of throwbacks to the old model. Why are we doing that? Because that's the only way to do something new, right? That was the model for doing new things. All these things used to be new. Like, if you want to do anything new today, that is the model you do need to bring back this model of bourgeois capitalism. ([Time 1:11:37](https://share.snipd.com/snip/fa865b15-ec85-4865-af22-fd2e74390b9a)) - The Need for Innovation at the State Level Summary: Bruno: The whole system is on autopilot. It's a, you know, movies cost $300 million. There's like a whole process and a whole bureaucracy for making these things. And so what Bruno would say basically is the whole, the whole country, the whole society has evolved into this kind of bureaucratic managerialism. But if there are to be new ideas in the world, it's going to come from some unusual individual saying, I think that the system is wrong. Transcript: Speaker 1 It's a, you know, movies cost $300 million. There's like a whole process and a whole bureaucracy for making these things. And so what Bruno would say basically is the whole, the whole country, the whole society has evolved into this kind of bureaucratic managerialism. And you know, in other words, without its stagnation, right? It's just like the whole, the whole system is on autopilot, like the whole society is autopilot, the government's autopilot. It's all an autopilot. And, and then, you know, every once in a while, you get an Elon Musk, right? Or, you know, you get the kinds of founders that we deal with, that they, they kind of step forward, they say, well, actually, I have a different idea. And then they have the temerity to, you know, build a new piece of software or to start a new kind of company or to propose some other creative idea. So anyway, you see kind of all these kind of, you know, perturbations in the force where these kind of creative individuals pop up. And then, you know, society freaks out and everybody's got an opinion on the whole thing. But if there is to be progress, right, if there are to be new ideas in the world, new concepts, new forms of art, new forms of culture, new ideas, by the way, new forms of politics, right, by the way, new ways to think about how you raise kids, you know, basically anything new, it's going to come from some unusual individual basically stepping up and saying, I think that the system is wrong. And so that's kind of the fundamental battle that will probably spend the rest of our, you know, probably send the next 1000 years of our civilization trying to basically balance between. Speaker 2 Yeah, I mean, I can see the example with a company, right, these companies stagnate and then new startups come and replace them. And that's that's something we've seen over and over and over. ([Time 1:16:20](https://share.snipd.com/snip/98b57cd0-f910-41fc-b7d6-8dedb51e2f09))