Why Technology Still Matters With Marc Andreessen - a16z Podcast  ## Metadata - Author: **a16z Podcast** - Full Title: Why Technology Still Matters With Marc Andreessen - Category: #podcasts - URL: https://share.snipd.com/episode/42db57fc-f782-4290-9433-a74e7d9dd032 ## Highlights - Cryptocurrency Blockchain Web Three Is Following This Exact Trajectories Key takeaways: • Morrison derives a threestep process for how new technologies are received by the status quo. • Stage one is just ignoring the technology, while stage two is engaging in rational counter arguments. • Stage three is when the name calling begins, with opponents accusing the technology of being bad for society. Transcript: Speaker 1 And so Morrison basically derives, he goes through this example, and he derives basically this three-part process that he says applies to any new technology. Basically, as it is as it is greeted and fought by the status quo, by the powers it be. And he says, basically, it's a three-step process. The step one is just completely ignore it. Like, so just pretend it doesn't exist, refuse to acknowledge it, don't talk about it, don't even engage in conversations like we're just not going to do this. At some point though, at some point, these things become too obvious and they have to engage, he said step two is rational counter argument, right? So, and rational counter argument is this can't possibly work because it's going to be too expensive, it's not going to be fast enough, it's not going to scale, people don't know how To use it, right? All the different kind of rational arguments that you can come up with to oppose something. And then ultimately, when those don't work anymore, because people are still watching this and being like, okay, this still seems like a good idea, then he says stage three says stage Three is when the name calling begins, right? And so stage three is basically just like a full-out power status political fight where all of a sudden basically it's like, okay, these are, you know, these people who are bringing This to technology, they're bad people, they have bad morals, they have bad intent, they're going to ruin everything, right? And if you think about it, it's so funny because it's like basically the internet followed this exact trajectory, like, you know, crypto, cryptocurrency blockchain, web three is Following this exact same trajectory social networking followed this exact same trajectory. Like I've now seen this pattern, you know, out of 50 times in the last 30 years and it keeps playing out the same way. Nobody learns anything, right? And it's this is literally what happens with every new technology and I become convinced that basically how this unfolds. ([Time 0:18:01](https://share.snipd.com/snip/e82df260-38d8-4c7d-b9ee-4e7b7ea34f99)) - Tags: #business - A16Z - Innovation and Technology Summary: I wonder how perhaps we might be able to do that within the framing of how people view innovation and technology. Douglas Adams, the science section of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. He said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right? It's going to bring doom to civilization. Transcript: Speaker 2 And like we talked about, that comes with time. But the reason I asked you how you made that shift or almost in some way changed your opinion as you got new data is because I wonder how perhaps we might be able to do that within the framing Of how people view innovation and technology. Kind of returning to what we talked about at the very beginning of this conversation, it does feel like there is this perception of technology. Of course, not everyone holds it that, you know, we're in a bad place or again, the world's getting worse or insert negative thing about our current state of affairs and I think it's really Inspiring at at least at A16Z to see that people do hold this very optimistic view and I wonder what you think maybe we can do as a collective, as a society to maybe orient more around this More positive view of technology because from my understanding and I'd actually love for you to go into this history, it doesn't sound like this was always the case that technology, I mean, specific technologies were viewed quite negatively, but a sense around innovation, I think, has been different in the past. Is that right? Speaker 1 Yes, that's a good point. So technology has always kind of gone through this cycle and I would go so far as to say like the technology adoption cycle, resistance cycle, like I'm not sure it's actually going to Change Douglas Adams, the science fiction author Douglas Adams who wrote the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. It's sort of both very fun, very funny, very serious, right? So he said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old, it's just like the natural order of things. Any technology that gets invented between the time when you're like 15 and 35 is new and exciting and cool and cutting edge and maybe you can make a career in it. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right? It's going to bring doom ([Time 0:54:04](https://share.snipd.com/snip/fb2f7ea2-42dc-475e-b426-b3fbd8213792)) - The Technology Adoption Cycle Summary: Technology has always kind of gone through the cycle and I would go so far as to say like the technology adoption cycle, resistance cycle. Douglas Adams, the science section of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. He said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right? Transcript: Speaker 1 Yeah, so that's a good point. So technology has always kind of gone through the cycle and I would go so far as to say like the technology adoption cycle, resistance cycle, like I'm not sure it's actually going to change Douglas Adams, the science section of the Douglas Adams who wrote the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had another take on this. Oh, yes. Both very funny, very serious, right? So he said basically it's like any technology that existed before you were like 15 years old is just like the natural order of things. Any technology that gets invented between the time when you're like 15 and 35 is like new and exciting and cool and cutting edge and like maybe you can make a career in it. And then any new technology that arrives after the age of 35 is unholy and against the natural order, right, and it's going to bring doom to civilization. Another way to kind of putting the sim cycle. So, so like the most kind of, I don't know, the most negative thing you could say or something would be like there's just this like permanent generational psychological thing, this cycle where another famous quote, I think it's the great business. Max Planck once said science advances one funeral at a time, meaning that like, you know, in science, you need like the old senior scientists who have like one paradigm to like quite literally die off so that the young scientists of the new paradigm can actually like take over. You know, that sort of pessimistic view would be like this is just so deeply baked into the mentality of how people operate psychologically that it's just like the permanent state of affairs. ([Time 0:55:05](https://share.snipd.com/snip/3810ae2f-064b-4dc9-b507-de8ae2da35db)) - What Do You Wish Society Valued More? Summary: As more people get access to this information, I think we're going to be really surprised by what comes out of that. One thing I really want to ask you about is how society values certain things. How do you view that changing today? What do you think society is valuing today? And perhaps if you're willing to share, what do you wish society valued more? Transcript: Speaker 2 Yeah, I think even another aspect of that is more people who are coming online, you are having them get access to remote work. And, you know, another second order effect of that is that remote tends to be more asynchronous. So certain people don't always benefit from the nine to five as an example. And, you know, I saw this infographic today of just like the schedules of all these luminaries from back in the day who had created wonderful things. And they were all over the place. So let's just again, one example of as more people get access to this information, as more people have access to different types of schedules or different types of companies or people Facilitated through the internet, I think we're going to be really surprised by what comes out of that. That's right. One thing I really want to ask you about is how society values certain things. And I've heard you talk about this to an extent before, but society will fluctuate throughout time and different people within that society will value different things. The society as a whole does seem to find virtue in in certain things at certain times. So for example, you mentioned before in history, maybe entrepreneurs were valued more. So as people built things, society rewarded that type of achievement. How do you view that changing today? What do you think society is valuing today? And perhaps if you're willing to share, what do you wish society valued more? ([Time 1:07:27](https://share.snipd.com/snip/f3716f27-e26f-4c9a-8dc2-0f7b1bed6e6a)) - Throwbacks to the Old Model Summary: In venture capital, what we do is we're basically the throwback. The startups that we fund are being funded, we fund startups that get that old model. We're trying to find those sort of modern bourgeois capitalists who are kind of throwbacks to the old model. Why are we doing that? Because that's the only way to do something new, right? That was the model for doing new things. Transcript: Speaker 1 Right? Henry Ford today could not run for a motor company like it's too big and complicated. You need a different skill set. But he said, look, it is a very different. It is a very big social cultural change and it's a change basically from valuing sort of individual aggression, individual merit, individual achievement, individual accomplishment, Individual force of will, right, to a much more collective way of operating, right? Groups, groups operating in sort of consensus collaborative form, you know, people having to come to agreement on things, committees, bureaucracy, right? And he basically said it sort of, you know, stage one, stage two, the way I do kind of what we do, like in venture capital, what we do is we basically are, we're basically the throwback. So the startups that we fund are being funded, we fund startups that get that old model, like we're trying to find the next generation of Henry Ford's, right? And Andrew Carnegie's and so forth and, you know, Lee was Stanford, you know, the railroad guy who, you know, ultimately funded Stanford University was a rubber bear in the 1880s. We're trying to basically go find those sort of modern bourgeois capitalists who are kind of throwbacks to the old model. Why are we doing that? Because that's the only way to do something new, right? That was the model for doing new things. All these things used to be new. Like if you want to do anything new today, that is the model you do need to bring back this model of bourgeois capitalism. And then basically ([Time 1:11:37](https://share.snipd.com/snip/fa865b15-ec85-4865-af22-fd2e74390b9a)) - The Need for Innovation at the State Level Summary: Bruno: The whole system is on autopilot. It's a, you know, movies cost $300 million. There's like a whole process and a whole bureaucracy for making these things. And so what Bruno would say basically is the whole, the whole country, the whole society has evolved into this kind of bureaucratic managerialism. But if there are to be new ideas in the world, it's going to come from some unusual individual saying, I think that the system is wrong. Transcript: Speaker 1 It's a, you know, movies cost three hundred million dollars. And there's like a whole process and a whole bureaucracy for making these things. And so what Bruno would say, basically, is the whole the whole country, the whole society has evolved into this kind of bureaucratic managerialism. And, you know, in other words, without its just stagnation, right? It's just like the whole the whole system is on autopilot, like the whole society's autopilot, the government's autopilot. It's all an autopilot. And and then, you know, every once in a while, you get a meal on must, right? Or, you know, you get the kinds of founders that we deal with, and they they kind of step forward and they say, well, actually, I have a different idea and then they have the temerity to, You know, build a new piece of software or to start a new kind of company or to propose some other creative idea. And so anyway, you see kind of all these kind of, you know, perturbations in the forest where these kind of creative individuals pop up and then, you know, society freaks out and everybody's Got an opinion on the whole thing. But if there is to be progress, right, if there are to be new ideas in the world, new concepts, new forms of art, new forms of culture, new ideas, by the way, new forms of politics, right, By the way, new ways to think about how you raise kids, you know, basically anything new, it's going to come from some unusual individual, basically stepping up and saying, I think that This system is wrong. And so that's kind of the fundamental battle that we'll probably spend the rest of our, you know, probably send the next thousand years of our civilization trying to basically balance Between. Speaker 2 Yeah, I mean, I can see the example with a company, right? These companies stagnate and then new startups come and replace them. And that's that's something we've seen over and over and over. ([Time 1:16:20](https://share.snipd.com/snip/98b57cd0-f910-41fc-b7d6-8dedb51e2f09))